Logistics & Supply Chain

Tariff regime shift has become structural demand tailwind for customs brokerage.

The U.S. Supreme Court's February 20, 2026 invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs, combined with the August 2025 termination of the $800 de minimis exemption for all countries, created a permanent expansion of customs entry volumes. Expeditors reported 13% customs brokerage revenue growth in 2025 driven explicitly by de minimis removal and tariff-driven classification complexity. FedEx acknowledged IEEPA ruling exposure but has recorded no financial adjustment, suggesting the receivables risk remains unquantified across the sector.

AI infrastructure capex is now a measurable, discrete freight demand driver.

Expeditors explicitly attributed airfreight, road freight, and warehousing volume gains to technology customers investing in AI infrastructure, marking the first time hyperscaler AI buildout was named as a direct service-line demand driver in sector filings. This demand source is structurally distinct from traditional consumer and industrial trade flows and is not subject to the tariff and trade policy volatility that constrained goods movement in 2025.

LTL pricing power is holding but cannot offset fixed-cost deleveraging from volume loss.

Old Dominion achieved 3.9% yield improvement against 8.8% daily tonnage decline, yet operating ratio still widened from 73.4% to 75.2%, illustrating a sector-wide constraint: aggressive general rate increases (ODFL, SAIA both implemented 5-8% increases in October 2025) are insufficient to restore network density when tonnage contracts. Depreciation and labor as a share of revenue expand mechanically, compressing margins despite pricing discipline across tracked competitors.

Amazon's capex intensity signals data center supply as the binding constraint on AWS growth.

Amazon's nine-month 2025 capex reached $89.9 billion, a 74% increase from $51.6 billion in the prior-year period, with management committing that capex will increase further in 2025 and 2026. This capex trajectory is now the dominant use of capital for the largest logistics and fulfillment operator tracked, signaling that data center and AI compute capacity, not fulfillment network density, is now the strategic binding constraint on AWS and broader business growth.