Repair & Remodel Demand

Repair and remodel demand has bifurcated into a two-speed market where non-discretionary replacement activity (roof repairs, door replacements, aging-housing-stock maintenance) is sustaining volume while discretionary projects (kitchen renovations, cosmetic remodels, discretionary flooring) are contracting mid-to-high single digits. TREX, IBP, JHX, and JBI are actively gaining share by repositioning their product lines and go-to-market strategies explicitly toward R&R end-markets, with TREX reporting the entry-level consumer returning for the first time in four years and IBP's cellulose business generating 28% same-branch growth from R&R and industrial-fiber demand. Conversely, JELD, MBC, FERG, OC, and MHK all report R&R demand declining mid-to-high single digits, with FERG explicitly noting that RMI work remains soft alongside new construction—reversing the historical counter-cyclical strength of repair spending when new construction weakens. The structural supports (rate-lock effect, aging housing stock over 20 years old, self-storage installed base 65% over 20 years old) are real and explicitly cited by IBP and JBI, but consumer confidence remains the gating variable; NX states volumes are tracking normal seasonality with neither sharp contraction nor meaningful recovery. The forward indicator is whether entry-level consumer return momentum at TREX persists into Q4 2026, as this signals whether the R&R inflection is durable or a tactical wood-conversion marketing win.